Project Risk Analysis & Modelling Skills with Excel + Oracle Crystal Ball
If you need to estimate the odds of delivering projects on time or on budget, probabilistic risk analysis is essential. In this 24hr workshop, participants will learn how to use Monte Carlo simulation with tools like Oracle Crystal Ball and Palisade’s @RISK to analyze cost, schedule, and forecast risk.
Designed for both beginners and experienced analysts, this course covers core concepts, practical model-building, and scenario testing for CAPEX estimates, project schedules, and discounted cash flows.
Module 1: Modeling Under Uncertainty
The flaw of averages & decision-making under risk
Monte Carlo simulation: history and benefits
Integrating simulation into planning and modeling
Spreadsheet modeling best practices
Using Crystal Ball: terminology, sampling, and data extraction
Workshop: Develop a compensation model with risk factors
Module 2: Simulation Basics & Sensitivity Tools
Key probability concepts and statistics (mean, std dev, skewness)
Distribution selection & input behavior
Tornado charts & sensitivity analysis
Estimation fundamentals: commitments vs. plans
Workshops: Loan process sensitivity, input variation, cost estimate comparison
Module 3: Historical Data & Time-Series Integration
Correlation, regression, and model behavior validation
Fitting distributions from data sources
Univariate forecasting with GBM and smoothing
Workshops: Sales forecasting, correlated trends with CB Predictor
Module 4: Optimization & Portfolio Planning
Using OptQuest for simulation-driven optimization
Project selection under constraints
Portfolio allocation and efficient frontier modeling
2D and 3D scenario modeling with decision tables
Workshops: Inventory optimization, oil field strategies
✅ Benefits
Participants will learn to:
Build and simulate cost estimates using Crystal Ball
Apply risk-based contingency planning to schedules and costs
Communicate model insights clearly and visually
Optimize projects based on risk-adjusted value
Interpret Monte Carlo results and use them to inform project planning